Part I . Characters

Nothing else is as integral to Smash Bros. as the characters playable in it, so that’s where we begin our work.

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1.1 Numbers

As a general ideal, there will be around 50 characters in SSB4. Besides that number’s big, bold marketability, there is some science at work behind the figure. As follows are the number of fighters in each Smash Bros. game up to this point.

Super Smash Bros. (Smash 64) = 12

Super Smash Bros. Melee = 26

Super Smash Bros. Brawl = 39

Mathematically, the average amount of newcomers for each Smash Bros. game is 13. (12 + 14 = 26 / 26 + 13 = 39) And while 39 + 13 is 52, a round 50 is an easier pill to swallow for a number of reasons. So when talking about characters–both veterans and newcomers, 50 will be the expected roster cap.

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1.2 Movesets as Characters

When talking about characters, there is something you must keep in mind. One moveset is equal to one character in the developer’s minds. It doesn’t matter whether that character has it’s own icon on the “Character Select Screen” or not. This is why Melee has 26 (Sheik) and Brawl has 39 (Sheik, Zero Suit Samus, Pokemon Trainer’s 2 other Pokemon). How do we know this? Because Masahiro Sakurai has on two occasions stated that these character counts are correct.

[Source for Melee] / [Source for Brawl] / [Director’s Confirmation]

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1.3 Veteran Characters

The following is the full list of all characters in Brawl. With one exception, none of them are expected to be cut from the game, and even then, it’s not as sure a thing as Dr. Mario or Pichu’s exclusion was.

◊ Mario Characters

• Mario
• Luigi
• Peach
• Bowser

◊ Donkey Kong Characters

• Donkey Kong
• Diddy Kong

◊ Yoshi Characters

• Yoshi
  

◊ Wario Characters

• Wario

◊ Legend of Zelda Characters

• Link
• Zelda
• Sheik
• Ganondorf
• Toon Link

◊ Metroid Characters

• Samus
• Zero Suit Samus

◊ Retro Characters

• Pit
• Ice Climbers
• R.O.B.
• Mr. Game & Watch

◊ Kirby Characters

• Kirby
• Meta Knight
• Kind Dedede

◊ Pikmin Characters

• Olimar

◊ Star Fox Characters

• Fox
• Falco
• Wolf

◊ F-ZERO Characters

• Captain Falcon

◊ Pokémon Characters

• Pikachu
• Squirtle
• Ivysaur
• Charizard
• Lucario*
• Jigglypuff
  

◊ Fire Emblem Characters

• Marth
• Ike

◊ Earthbound/MOTHER Characters

• Ness
• Lucas

◊ 3rd Party Characters

• Snake
• Sonic

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1.4 Probable Roster Changes

The most likely character to be cut from the current roster is Lucario. The supposed replacement for his spot is an as-of-now unknown Pokemon from the inevitable 5th Generation of Pocket Monsters. For more on this, see Part 1.5, below.

All other probable changes to the current roster deal with certain movesets. Long a thorn in fans’ side, Ganondorf’s oddly cloned moveset will hopefully be changed…but after seeing him left largely unchanged from Melee to Brawl, the odds of this happening are slim. There remains one popular option for this sticking point, however. See Part 1.6, below.

The other major moveset change (as in, more than a simple tweak to a characters statisitcs, and more than one or two moves changed, such as Mario’s new use of F.L..U.D.D. in Brawl) involves Falco. As he is now, Falco shares an uncomfortable number of moves with Fox. Brawl did an okay job differentiating the two, but compared to Wolf’s differences, Falco still seems very reminiscent of Fox.

Finally, a number of minor moveset changes are likely. Lucas, Wolf, and Toon Link are due for new, unique Final Smashes, as well as some slight changes to one or two moves, to further solidify their status as NOT clones.

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1.5 The Pokemon Problem

If your attention has been held up to this point, then you most likely know who “The Forbidden Seven” are. As a quick refresher, there are certain lines of code in the retail release of Brawl that suggest that 7 characters not in the final game were at one point intended to be. One of these seven characters is Mewtwo.

This is important, and relates to why Lucario stands the highest chance of being cut. Essentially, the theory is that Mewtwo–a character with a wholly original set of moves, unique and iconic standing in the Pokemon universe, and no shortage of fans–was removed from the game on the behest of The Pokemon Company themselves, who asked to have Lucario–the most iconic Pokemon from the fourth generatin of them–included in the game instead. Why they wanted this is unimportant, but it might have had something to do with generally trying to keep up with the times. If Lucario was not in the game, all of the Pokemon characters would have originated in the original generation. Something a business-minded company like Game Freak would possibly like to avoid.

In any case, the theory then follows that due to now having to make an entire new character (Lucario), the team decided to remove Mewtwo, and re-use a scant few of his attributes (overall low gravity, chargeable projectile, quick, non-damaging recovery, etc.) on their new humainoid Pocket Monster, Lucario.

So how does all that harm Lucario’s chances for a second appearance? Basically, if the Pokemon Company was able to get Sakurai & Co. to remove one character in favor of another, newer one, then chances are they’ll be able to do so again. When the inevitable Fifth Generation of Pokemon is produced, there will most assuredly be a desire to promote said generation. And since the theory above dictates that Mewtwo was probably replaced by Lucario due to reasons of advertising, then surely the same could happen to Lucario.

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1.6 Ganondorf’s Shadow

One of the first things most players found strange about Melee’s roster was that Ganondorf was a clone of Captain Falcon, of all people. One would think that the primary antagonist of nearly every Zelda game ever made would warrant an original moveset. Granted, Melee ran a very tight schedule, and birthed clones in general, so that excuses it to an extent.

As Brawl’s release grew nearer, one of the “no-brainer” changes most fans expected was the “de-cloning” of Ganondorf. Instead, we got an updated, slightly-changed Captain Falcon moveset for the King of Evil.

After two games (and more importantly, after a fully missed opportunity in Brawl) of the same thing, it is pretty unlikely that Ganondorf will be stuck as a pseudo-clone forever. However, there is a popular theory that could quite easily remedy this.

But before I get to that, consider that Captain Falcon, a character in all three games, is still the only fighter from the F-ZERO franchise. There are any number of reasons for this (Sakurai doesn’t like F-ZERO, he’s too “manly”, there aren’t any other good F-ZERO characters), but the most likely reason is simply that F-ZERO is not a very high-profile series for Nintendo.

Getting back to Ganondorf. We know that Smash Bros. tends to recycle a lot of the moves in it’s fighters (Ganondorf = Captain Falcon being the most evident). We also know that F-ZERO is due for a second character (if Earthbound/MOTHER can have two, then why not?). The aforementioned popular theory holds that Black Shadow, the primary antagonist in most F-ZERO games, will be added to the game. He would inherit Ganondorf’s current moveset, while Ganondorf himself has a new, totally-original one made for him.

Granted, this is a pretty loose theory, and is primarily based on an ideal situation that only seems like it would be easy to implement…but it’s still something to take into consideration.

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